Race time prediction based on your VMA (10K, half marathon, and marathon)
What is VMA?
You know your VMA (Maximum Aerobic Speed), but want to see what it really means in a race? This tool lets you estimate your potential finishing time for the 5K, 10K, half marathon, and marathon based on your current fitness level.Simply enter your VMA to get a realistic projection of your performances, with both a “conservative” and an “optimal” time range for each distance.
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Time Estimate Based on Your VMA
💡 Select your VMA (in km/h) to discover your potential for 10 km, half-marathon, and marathon.
The generated table shows four columns: the distance, the sustainable percentage of your VMA, the corresponding average speed, and finally your estimated finishing time.This last value is displayed as a range — min and max — to help you visualize your potential under varying conditions.Let’s take an example: A runner with a VMA of 18.5 km/h can expect approximately: -5K: between 17:35 and 18:20 -10K: between 36:20 and 37:40 -Half marathon: between 1h21 and 1h25 -Marathon: between 2h50 and 3h00 These estimates reflect a solid regional-level performance. They’re based on your physiological potential, but also take into account real-world factors — endurance, consistency, and race conditions can all influence your final time.
Why VMA is a Key Indicator
VMA is a fundamental benchmark for assessing your running potential. It allows you to : adjust your training paces accurately,set realistic goals, andtrack your progress over the seasons.However, two runners with the same VMA can still record different finishing times. The difference depends on : their aerobic endurance (ability to sustain a high percentage of VMA),their running economy (energy efficiency), andtheir racing experience.
This is why Fox Running Club provides a range estimate rather than a single arbitrary number, making the result more realistic and personalized.
How to Improve and Increase Your VMA
To shift your results table toward faster times, you need to work on both your VMA and your endurance. Here are three essential levers: -Short intervals (30/30, 10 × 400 m, 8 × 1000 m) to boost your speed and VO₂max. -Long runs to strengthen your endurance and fatigue resistance. -Recovery, often overlooked, but essential for assimilating training load and making progress.
A runner who combines these three aspects, with consistency and a healthy lifestyle, can expect to gain 1–2 km/h of VMA in a few months.
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